The wise guys love to name the San Antonio Spurs as the favorites to win the title because they're the safe pick.
The other reason might also be that they're also the smartest pick, particularly this season — despite the return of virtually everyone for the defending NBA champion Miami Heat and the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks.
And here's why ... they were within an eyelash of winning three of the four games they lost to the Mavs in the thrilling Western Conference semifinals, and this was in a season during which both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were hurt most of the year trying to defend their 2005 title.
Plus, Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker did not play into June in 2006, nor go through the rigorous international play they had experienced in previous seasons. In other words, this team is irritated about what happened last season and healthier than any of the recent years.
"Every year there are about three or four teams that can win a championship, and the three that we won, I didn't know we were going to win those," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said of titles won in 1999, 2003 and '05.
"There could have been other teams that wanted them. We could have easily won last year's and so could Dallas or some other team ... Detroit or whoever you want to plug in there. You lose to someone and I think what's important is how you lose and what the series was like. You don't just change willy-nilly because you lost."
So the Spurs didn't. Oh, they added more athletic big men Francisco Elson and Fabricio Oberto to support Duncan (with Nazr Mohammed leaving), plus Matt Bonner, Jackie Butler and Jacque Vaughn. But that isn't the point considering they are ancillary players anyway.
There are misconceptions about the Spurs, and that is part of what is driving them. With Duncan inside featuring his brilliant all-around game, Parker emerging as perhaps the best point guard in the game at getting to the rim, and Ginobili still a very tough, multi-dimensional shooting guard, they have three players who can dominate offensively.
Plus that's on a team that is also a top-three defensive team, with perennial All-Defense first team forward Bruce Bowen added to the brilliance of Duncan and constant thieving hands of Ginobili and Parker. The concept that this team is old and does not have the athleticism to play with the Mavs anymore may very well be precisely what motivates the Spurs to regain what they lost.
"People have to have definitions and people have to describe winners and losers, but that Dallas series could have easily gone the other way," Popovich said. "Nobody would have mentioned that we looked a little old. I guess when you lose, I guess you do and when you win you look real experienced. I think we are as good as anybody, but in the end it takes a lot of things to win a championship; Good fortune is important, getting some good calls here and there, being on a run, having a player that is playing great. We feel good about our team. We have probably become a little bit more athletic inside, but other than that, we are pretty much the same."
Most favor the Heat to repeat in the East, but they are old and Dwyane Wade is already exhausted from the off-season before the 2006-07 season even tips off. The Pistons still are tough and dangerous but lacking depth and Ben Wallace. The Chicago Bulls are the vogue pick to watch out for because they signed Wallace, but they lack a go-to player to win the big game. And of course any time LeBron James leads the Cleveland Cavaliers — everyone is in love with the opportunity they may have to turn the world upside down despite the obvious lack of championship quality players around him.
Of course, the Mavs remain one of the favorites, and rightfully so. Avery Johnson did a brilliant job in his first full season, helping further evolve Dirk Nowitzki's game, and a defense that was previously a joke suddenly became a factor. It's easy to be excited about the possibilities for the Phoenix Suns to return to the conference finals for a third consecutive year with the return of Amare Stoudemire — with the caveat that his knees really have healed, which is still unproven. And it's fun to fall in love with the Los Angeles Clippers for a second year because they have been so dismal forever, along with the fact that the core of Elton Brand, Sam Cassell and youngsters Chris Kaman and Shaun Livingston are so intriguing. Nonetheless, they are still the Clippers.
Besides, this is a reality check, and that's why the Spurs have always been so good and so consistent. They are about reality. They are about defensive toughness and consistency — no easy shots are allowed because they are always there in the half-court and transition.
Offensively, they push the ball for easy baskets at every moment — with Parker flowing up the floor more than running, and Ginobili and/or Duncan coming off the wing. They hit big 3-pointers and have clutch veterans, such as Robert Horry, Michael Finley and Brent Barry, to knock down shots from the bench.
"I think," Popovich stressed, "that people tend to oversimplify teams."
And that's impossible when it comes to the Spurs because they have been for the past seven seasons, they do indeed break down the game to its simplest form.
This season will be no different in that regard, with one difference. They have something to prove, and beware of the lion-hearted who believe they've been wronged. They won't be pretty ... just effective on the way to their fourth title in eight years.
That's the San Antonio Spurs' way of life, and why the wise guys know that the efficiency of the champions is all that really matters. Because even if the whining and TV ratings say Duncan will bore everybody all the way to the title as opposed to James, Wade or even the Mavs, who cares? Certainly the Spurs don't and won't throughout the 2006-07 season.
Get used to it.
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